THE A-B-C OF CIRCULATION
In absence of readership data, publications rely on Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) numbers. Even as issues such as status of variants and alleged manipulation of print runs lead to conflict, will the ‘new, improved’ Indian Readership Survey (IRS) due next year bring solace? BY DIPALI BANKA Fierce rivalry is to be seen not only during India-Pakistan cricket matches or election campaigns in India - even the Print domain is witness to bitter wars based on numbers and the need to be No. 1. In the absence of recent Indian Readership Survey (IRS) data – the last set of data having been rejected by the industry at large - Audit Bureau of Circulation (ABC) figures have become the benchmark, and publications in different corners of the country are going all out to fight pitched battles and prove their supremacy to entice the advertiser to spend. A key factor in these circulation wars is variants – lower priced versions of the same publication being circulated in the same market as the umbrella brand, adding to its circulation figures. Some players feel that it is the correct indication of their strength as variants are part of the same media brand, whereas others are against it. In fact, the Print industry is now polarized on the strength of pro- and anti- variant lobbies. Perhaps the most pronounced battle over variants is being fought out between Dainik Jagran and Amar Ujala, both of which claim to have the highest circulation in Uttar Pradesh, and that both are No. 1 in the State, with their respective advertising campaigns having been approved by ABC and the Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI). The key point to note here is that Amar Ujala’s circulation number (22,14,423 copies - JD 2015) also includes circulation of its lower price variant – Amar Ujala Compact - priced at Rs 1.50 which is distributed in the same territory with different content and different pagination, while Dainik Jagran numbers (21,28,545 – JD 2015) does not include circulation figures of any lower price variant. Both publications have brought it out in the open, sending out mailers and communication discrediting each other’s claim of being No. 1 in Uttar Pradesh. “Yes, there could be cases where some errant publishers are taking advantage of some technical aspects of ABC rules and trying to mislead the industry. However, these things cannot go too far. ABC is debating ways and means to ensure that malpractices are curbed and the data is of value to all stakeholders,” says Shailesh Gupta, Director, Dainik Jagran. On the other hand, Probal Ghoshal, Director of Amar Ujala Publications Ltd, says, “We have always adhered to the ABC certification process and successive draft communication was repeatedly approved by ABC that we are No. 1 in Uttar Pradesh, including our variant. All through, we have been very honest. We never said that we are No. 1 in UP without variants. Nor have we ever claimed that we are No. 1 excluding variants in any communication. The entire communication was compliant with the prevalent publicity code. However, even before the publicity code could be formally reviewed at ABC’s August 5 meeting, Jagran secured an amendment to the code stating that a publication cannot include variants while calculating publicity numbers about its circulation. On that basis, Jagran started campaigning that it is No. 1 in UP. ABC is an industry body. The variant issue was to be discussed at its Aug 5 meeting, so why was there such a hurry to come out with an amendment? Why was the code changed to favour just one publication?” When ABC did hold that meeting to discuss the issue of lower price variants in the same territory and its reporting, no decision came out of it, though the Board is now looking to allow variants to be clubbed together with the mother brand’s circulation numbers, with a stringent publicity code in place with regard to the disclosure of such variants. This is just one case in point. Reportedly, some publications have started printing 50,000 or more extra copies to bump up their circulation numbers while some are reducing their cover price to boost up sales. Such stories abound across the country, especially in the various regional publication markets. But does increasing the circulation figures by a few thousand once or twice make any difference to a Print brand or media planners and advertisers? Is ABC doing anything about these issues? How does MRUC and IRS come into play? MEDIA PLANNING AND THE NUMBER GAME First of all, media planners and advertisers do not always place their advertising monies on the basis of just one benchmark of circulation figures, especially when it gives an indication only about the reach of the publication and not the readership or demography of the reader. Absence of latest IRS data affects media planning to some extent, but a strong readership trend for publications has been established over a period now and all previous IRS research data has validated that. So, the thumb rule for Print planning still links back to readership and market understanding, which has been developed over a period of time. “For most of our Print planning decisions, we use IRS. Circulation figures come in handy when a publication is not represented in IRS or during negotiations especially when we are working on innovations,” says Rathi Gangappa, COO, MediaCom. For campaigns which are driven by discounts, offers over a limited period, media planning is largely based on sales and response generated from advertisements in papers. Feedback from sales teams and channel partners give a fairly accurate picture of the performance of the publication in the market. Secondly, most of these newspapers have around 40- 60% of local clients. For these advertisers, the key priority is the local perception of the publication, responses generated through advertisements and inputs from local dealers and staff. Government advertisements, which form about 2.5-7% of a publication’s total advertising, are released by the Department of Advertising and Visual Publicity (DAVP), which has a separate standardized rate structure for publications of different scales. The rates are based on certified circulations either by ABC or by Registrar of Newspaper of India (RNI). Here also publications try and quote RNI numbers in some cases where they have launched a new small city edition. So, why this race for the No. 1 spot? In the absence of readership numbers, ABC is the only credible currency left for advertisers to bank upon. “It is important to note that the measurement system helps in taking prudent commercial decisions to pay the rates,” says R S Sodhi, Managing Director, GCMMF. “So even though ABC has its limitations, circulation can give you a sense of the paper’s strength in a market over someone else. It needs to be a comparative study,” he adds. In the long run, measurement systems help and grow the industry. In the absence of a quantitative measurement system it becomes difficult for an advertiser to allocate spends efficiently or for a Print publication to maximize its readership. COMING SOON: A NEW AND IMPROVED IRS The industry this time has got together to re-boot IRS and make it the sole creditable currency of the Print domain. The new revamped IRS is expected to be out in the first quarter of 2017, followed by regular quarterly updates and industry participants claim that this time it would be far more robust than its earlier versions. For this survey, the Readership Studies Council of India (RSCI) has increased the sample size by 40% at an all-India level. Funding for the entire exercise is about Rs 15-20 crore, and industry stakeholders have come together to get the new IRS going. The IRS Technical Committee has also enhanced the process of back-checks and included a third-party auditor to monitor the process of survey design and quality control. Various safety enhancement layers, using technology like trackers for GPS locations of interviewers, enhanced audio recording and electronically addressed forms, have also been incorporated this time around. POSITIONING ABC AND IRS DATA TOGETHER One of the major changes the Media Research Users Council (MRUC) has brought into the upcoming IRS is that readership data will be placed alongside circulation figures of ABC, which will clear discrepancies that arise in each of the surveys, taken separately. “Publishers use the ABC and IRS numbers according to their convenience, depending on which number suits them better. So the minute we can align the two, this will stop. In spirit, the people who run ABC and IRS have agreed to put these numbers side by side. When the IRS comes out, we will put both these numbers together,” says Shashi Sinha, Chairman of the Audit Bureau of Circulations. ON TO DIGITAL MEASUREMENT Today, a lot of publications are read online, and they have advertisements on e-papers and sites. In order to measure this, ABC got Nielsen and Facebook in for the technology aspect and the starting point would be to certify both e-paper data alongside print runs. “The data will not include the engagement or time spent as we are not measuring it. But yes we will give out profile and thus the Nielsen and the Facebook tie-up is crucial,” adds Sinha. A cumulative of digital and paper readership should ensure seamless numbers to take a robust decision. How it will be better than the already established measurements like Comscore and Google Analytics, is a different matter of contention. “There is a lot that needs to be done on digital measurement. ABC is making a beginning; that’s fine. We will have to see how they do it, because there is a whole lot of digital measurement that’s already available,” says Arun Anant, Director of Revenue and Strategy, HT Media Limited. “Finding the right mix of print and digital is less about our business and more about our customers. Hence the ability to provide localised subsets of data across both print and digital which would help us create more meaningful marketing mixes is need in our category,” says Girish Shah, Director, The Wadhwa Group. Publications want the print measurement studies to comply with the best security protocols, work with great transparency and one that takes on board the concerns of publishers and works together to find solutions. There is also a concern that the print measurement study is overburdened with the task of capturing a lot a product consumption data. While this year, the questionnaire length has been shortened, going forward RSCI needs to continue to find ways and means to get the right balance between product consumption data and print measurement and eventually reflect the ground reality. “Certain areas of print measurement have been the need of the hour for a long time now like separate reporting for supplements and increase in the frequency of data updates which is currently just bi- annual/annual at best. Currently IRS gets updated every six months unlike TV which is updated every week. Also, we need to be able to understand the difference in the reach and impact for an impact ad (front age/innovations/mastheads) vs. regular ads in the inside pages,” says Bhaskar Choudhuri, Director Marketing, Lenovo India. MAKE HAY WHILE PRINT SHINES! The general perception is that Print is becoming obsolete and it is all about Digital now. But recent industry research reports suggest that the ‘obsoleteness’ of Print is still many years away in India. Various industry reports have shown positive growth for Print publications, especially newspapers, both in terms of circulation and advertising spends for the year 2016. According to ABC, print circulation of member publications in July-December 2015 increased by 8.1% over the previous period of January-June 2015. “If you analyse the data of the last five years, you will see that Print is growing. It’s a sustained growth over the last five years,” says Shashi Sinha. In a country as diverse as India, both Digital media and Print media would co-exist and prosper at least over the foreseeable future. “According to our internal survey, industry advertising spends are likely to grow at 12% while Print is expected to grow by 6%. This growth is determined by two factors – increasing literacy levels and disposable income,” says Ashish Bhasin, Chairman & CEO South Asia Dentsu Aegis Network, Chairman Posterscope and psLive - Asia Pacific. Across the newspaper industry, it is seen that amongst the younger age group of 16-21 years, there is a shift from Print to the Digital medium. At the same time, there has been a steady growth of the Print medium over the years, thanks to newly literate readers coming into the fold. “When Internet as a new medium became accessible through widespread acquisition of hand-held devices, many readers, especially in the younger age groups, embraced the Digital medium. But how many of them use it for news is a matter of speculation. Most use it for entertainment and communication,” says M V Shreyams Kumar, Director, Mathrubhumi. The Print advertising market is pegged at Rs17-18,000 crore in size whereas the Digital news & current affairs advertising market is at Rs 1,200 crore. In five years, this might increase to Rs 2,000 crore, which would still be far smaller than the existing Print market, which should also post a CAGR of 8-9% over the next 4-5 years. “We believe that time spent on newspapers in India would continue to be resilient to the impact of Digital media, given the habit formation over the years, ease of availability of newspapers delivered at doorsteps and it being an inexpensive medium. Any loss in readership from youngsters (15-30-year-olds) should be made up with new literates getting added every year,” says Rohit Dokania, Senior VP-Research, IDFC Securities. OUTLOOK: NEITHER ROSY NOR GRIM Meanwhile, Print publication houses are investing in the Digital medium, but we have not seen major properties coming in from Print players, the way broadcast has got its act together on Digital. Players in the industry have deep pockets and are well poised to make that Digital investment, develop Digital brands and create a strong equity out of it. All that is needed is a professional push and fresh thinking, says an analyst. “If data evidences Print growth, it is actually a very promising sign. Globally, Digital has overtaken Print and we’ve seen top publications shutting down their paper editions to focus on the Digital avatar. However, that trend is just on the brink for India. We have seen examples on some of our brands, that Facebook could reach over 35 million users on a single day with our communication on the newsfeed. This is way above the reach of the country’s highest circulated English daily! Digital is not a threat to Print yet, but with penetration growing faster than any other – it is not long before Digital will command a higher share of the advertising monies,” says Shavon Barua, Managing Partner, PHD. Despite the numbers, marketers do not seem to be increasing their Print spends. In fact, they are consolidating the Print spends on Digital. For example, the category of personal computers and smartphones was investing heavily on Print with almost 80-90% of ad spends, but in the recent past, Print has come down to 50-60%, while Digital investments have gone up. However, Print cannot be ignored by this category completely, as it continues to be used dominantly for communicating offers and other tactical interventions. The dependency on/use of Print by the category is expected to go down further, with Digital penetration becoming more and more robust even down the population strata. As the relationship of marginal revenue and total revenue suggests, so long as marginal revenue is positive, total revenue will be increasing; where marginal revenue is zero, total revenue is maximum and where marginal revenue is negative, the total revenue begins to fall. The Print industry is on top of the curve, it seems, and the fall is inevitable. But it needs to prepare its Digital assets to add to the marginal revenue to negate the impact. Unlike other markets in the world, we still have headroom to buckle up and get on that Digital bandwagon before it is too late. As Varghese Chandy , General Manager, Malayala Manorama puts it, “Though the Digital medium helps people to access information/news/entertainment whenever they want, the charm of reading the printed word is still there and increasing day by day.” @ FEEDBACK dipali.banka@exchange4media.com
Tags : Impact Feature