India’s e-commerce ecosystem is set to reach USD250 billion by 2030, growing from USD90 billion today, according to the Google and Deloitte report ‘The USD250 Billion Commerce Frontier’, signalling a shift from infrastructure access to an always-on cycle of discovery, validation, and instant gratification.
As per the report, with 150 million new shoppers entering the digital economy and per capita spend set to double, a 220-million-strong Gen Z cohort will command 45% of online spend. This shift is driving a move toward AI-powered shopping experiences, with four forces—Inspired, Intelligent, Instant, and Immersive—projected to contribute USD100 billion to commerce growth by 2030.
Roma Datta Chobey, Managing Director - Connected Consumer Commerce, Google India, said, “This is a pivotal moment for Indian commerce driven by a fundamental shift in how India shops. Consumers today demand experiences inspired by storytelling, powered by AI and immersive technologies, and anchored by instant fulfillment. At Google, we are committed to empowering this ecosystem through intelligence and trust. From our virtual try on tool and shopping features in AI Mode and now, Gemini app to creators driving commerce on YouTube, we are streamlining the journey from brainstorming to browsing to final purchase. Central to this evolution is our focus on agentic AI, where we are building tools to benefit both consumers and brands. We are excited to partner with the ecosystem to drive this new standard of commerce, leveraging AI to turn the ‘love for the find’ into a personalised, seamless reality for every consumer.”
Anand Ramanathan, Partner & Consumer Industry Leader - South Asia, Deloitte, said, “India’s e-commerce landscape is entering a structurally different phase, moving from mass marketing to an era of algorithmic intimacy, where demand is not just predicted but synthesised in real time. A new cohort of digital-first consumers, led by Gen Z, is driving this shift, valuing authenticity alongside speed and relevance. This is accelerating the rise of generative commerce, where consumers can describe a need and AI curates or even creates solutions instantly. We are also beginning to see the emergence of curation-as-a-service, with AI-led journeys reshaping discovery, decision-making and fulfilment. For businesses, the opportunity lies in combining intelligent technology, creator ecosystems and agile supply chains to drive deeper engagement, higher wallet share and sustainable growth.”
Creators to become trusted engine of commerce
By 2030, creators will influence 30% of total retail spend, with one in ten online purchases attributable to a creator storefront. This trust economy will be most potent in Tier 2+ markets, where creators will onboard 60 million first-time buyers. Live commerce is set to become an USD8 billion sector, driven by Gen Z adoption, transforming social discovery into a high-velocity, experience-led sales engine across fashion, beauty and electronics.
To further drive creator-led commerce, YouTube has onboarded Tira, Reliance Retail’s beauty destination, to the YouTube Shopping Affiliate Program, enabling creators to feature premium beauty products within content. With partners including Flipkart, Myntra, Nykaa and Purplle, and access expanded to creators with at least 500 subscribers, the platform is bridging creator-led inspiration and product discovery.
Quick commerce to scale beyond urban hubs
Quick commerce is projected to become a USD50 billion market, with its shopper base doubling to 70 million. Tier 2+ cities will contribute 30% of the market as the model expands beyond urban centres. Non-food categories such as beauty, fashion and electronics will account for 45% of total spend by 2030, creating a USD10 billion opportunity. Hybrid models integrating offline inventory into digital networks are expected to unlock USD20 billion in spending.
AI as the force multiplier
AI is expected to drive a 30–35% boost in retail profitability by hyper-personalising shopping journeys and improving operational efficiency. It is evolving into an expert advisor for India 1 and a trusted companion for India 2 shoppers.
With updates across Gemini, AI Mode and Circle to Search, new shopping features in the Gemini app enable users to move from brainstorming to browsing within chat, while upgrades to AI Mode in Search aim to make shopping more conversational and seamless.
Immersive technologies to drive growth
According to the report, 89% of shoppers seek a unified journey where a single cart moves across online and offline channels. Immersive technologies such as AR and virtual try-ons are driving adoption, with 1 in 3 Indian shoppers preferring virtual trials and half increasing online spend. As 72% of consumers are willing to pay a premium for tech-enabled expertise, physical stores are evolving into high-value experience centres.
By leveraging AI, immersive technology and creator-led ecosystems, India’s retail sector is poised to drive innovation, improve efficiency and deliver personalised consumer experiences.
The report is based on a collaboration between Google and Deloitte, with consumer insights from Kantar, combining analysis and market insights to offer strategies for stakeholders across the commerce ecosystem.
