Every festive season arrives like a tide. It builds slowly, gathers force and by the time Diwali draws near, seems to have swept almost every corner of the market into its wave. New products hit the shelves, sale calendars take over screens and brands begin competing for the same few weeks in which consumers are most willing to open their wallets. For the advertising industry, it is the moment when the year’s ambitions come to a head.
But the tide in 2026 is not entirely predictable. The opportunity remains difficult to ignore. Festive consumption continues to bring together some of India’s biggest advertising categories, while e-commerce, quick commerce and digital discovery have created more points at which a consumer can encounter a brand before making a purchase. At the same time, the season arrives against a more complicated backdrop. Geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, rising media costs and pressure on margins are forcing marketers to look more carefully at every additional rupee.
The forecasts reflect both the optimism and the uncertainty. India’s overall advertising market is expected to grow by around 9.7% in 2026, while most agency estimates put festive AdEx growth at around 10–12%. Some see the season expanding by as much as 15%, while the more cautious estimates put growth closer to 3–5%.
That unusually wide range may be the first indication of what makes the 2026 festive season different. The question is not how big the advertising boom will be. It is about what will drive it, where the money will flow, which media will emerge stronger and how confidently brands can navigate a season that promises plenty of opportunity, but offers very little room for an expensive misstep.
Bigger, But How Much?
The festive advertising market is heading into 2026 with a positive outlook, but the confidence behind that growth is not uniform. The huge gap between projections points to a market where the festive opportunity remains strong, but advertisers are making different calls on how confidently to commit to it.
“Last year’s festive season was a policy event as much as a shopping season,” says Shweta Sharma, CEO, Hakuhodo Data Labs India. Last year’s festive season was shaped by the GST 2.0 rollout, which coincided with the Navratri kick-off and drove roughly Rs 5,400 crore in incremental spend. Redseer’s data from the first 11 days showed over Rs 60,000 crore in GMV, growing 20-22% versus around 12% the previous year. With this year lapping that unusually strong base, she says a softer growth rate is a matter of arithmetic rather than a sign of weakness.
The period continues to carry unusual weight in the annual advertising calendar. R K SWAMY Media Group expects the festive quarter to account for maximum investments, making it significantly larger than the other quarters. K Satyanarayana, Group Media Advisor, R K SWAMY Media Group, says, “I expect a growth of 15% during this festive season. Festive quarters would constitute around 35-40% this year; which is approximately 40-60% more than other quarters.” The festive quarter is less of a routine seasonal spike and more of a concentrated advertising window. A large part of the year’s spending decisions is compressed into this period, which means even a small change in advertiser confidence can have a visible effect on the market.
For much of the agency fraternity, that confidence remains intact. Mudra expects festive AdEx to grow 10–12%, broadly similar to last year, while dentsu India sees the season maintaining its resilience. The expectation is therefore not of a dramatic acceleration, but of continued expansion at a healthy pace.
Rupali Chavan, SVP & Head of Business, Mudra, however, sees an important distinction within that growth, “We expect festive AdEx to grow by around 10–12% this year similar to last year, supported by resilient consumption, e-commerce, premiumization and strong competition around the festive shopping window. The larger story, however, is not just the growth in spending but the quality of that growth.”
For Chavan, the market’s growth needs to be viewed alongside the decisions being made around incremental spending. Advertisers are not necessarily approaching the festive season with an instruction to increase every part of the media plan. The additional money is being evaluated more carefully, which means the eventual AdEx number will be shaped not only by how much brands want to spend, but by how confidently they release those budgets.
That caution becomes more apparent when looking at brands that have a strong reason to advertise during the festive period. CaratLane, for instance, is one such brand. Shaifali Gautam, Chief Marketing Officer, CaratLane, says, “Our festive AdEx is largely flat this year — we haven’t significantly upped the overall budget. What’s changed is efficiency: sharper targeting and a leaner channel mix are letting us chase a higher sales target without spending proportionately more. It’s less about spending more , more about spending smarter.”
The decision is significant because CaratLane operates in a category where the festive period carries considerable purchase relevance. Yet the brand is choosing to hold the overall spending line and focus on what the existing budget can deliver.
That is where the more cautious agency estimates become relevant. The InterMentalist expects a logarithmic growth this year. Shivashish Tarkas, Founder and CEO, The InterMentalist, attributes the restraint to a market where brands are taking longer to make decisions amid geopolitical uncertainty, cost pressures and concerns around demand. “If I had to put a number to my expectation today, I would estimate festive AdEx to grow by around 3–5% over last year, with 4% being my base expectation. I would be surprised by very aggressive double-digit growth unless there is a significant improvement in the global economic and geopolitical environment over the next few months.”
Tarkas is not forecasting a weak festive season. His wider assessment is that the money has not necessarily disappeared, but some brands are delaying decisions until they have greater clarity. That creates an important distinction between demand for the festive period and the timing of advertising commitments.
Rahul Vengalil, CEO, tgthr sees that timing playing out in a different way, with delayed purchases potentially concentrating demand around the festive window. His view is that brands could see stronger activity as the season approaches because purchases that were held back earlier eventually have to happen. “Compared to last year definitely, there is a delayed purchase behavior which I am seeing, hence Diwali will be critical for almost every brand which exists right now. We are on a positive curve over there,” he said.
Further, comparing it with last year’s run, Vengalil says that last year saw a month-long lull ahead of the festive season as consumers held back amid the GST changes and their implications, leading advertisers to significantly hold off on spending. This year, however, the market is seeing positive growth, although brands continue to face pressure on margins amid ongoing wars, inflation and other economic factors.
Who Is Getting the Festive AdEx?
The headline growth in festive advertising will not be distributed evenly across the market. Some categories enter the season with a natural dependence on festive demand, while others have a stronger advertising presence throughout the year and therefore see a smaller seasonal jump. The difference matters because the categories contributing most to festive AdEx are not necessarily the ones recording the sharpest increase in spending.
Retail, FMCG, consumer durables, automobiles and e-commerce are expected to remain among the major contributors to festive advertising, alongside categories such as jewellery, fashion, electronics and BFSI. Within this mix, however, the intensity of festive spending varies considerably. Consumer durables and electronics, for instance, can concentrate a significant part of their advertising around the major sale and purchase periods, while categories such as FMCG maintain a more consistent presence through the year.
Meher Patel, Founder, Hector, puts some numbers behind that difference, drawing on festive spending patterns observed over the past three years. Beauty and personal care typically see an increase of around 10% during the period, while FMCG and CPG are closer to 10–12%. Electronics and consumer durables can see a sharper jump of around 15–20%, particularly around major sale days.
The category picture is also being shaped by how brands expect consumers to spend this year. For Godrej Foods, the festive and winter period represents its strongest demand window, making the season an important opportunity to build both awareness and trial. Anushree Dewen, Head of Marketing and Innovation, Godrej Foods Ltd, says, “The festive and winter seasons bring us the highest-quality demand of the year. Families spend more time together, homes are full, and consumers are more open to trying something new. For us, the festive season is not just about higher sales, it’s about building awareness, trial and long-term brand preference.”
For the company, the value of the festive period therefore extends beyond the immediate sales spike. The season provides an opportunity to introduce products and establish usage occasions when consumers are already more receptive to experimentation. That makes the festive window particularly important for newer propositions within a category, rather than only for established products.
Jewellery has a different festive dynamic. The category continues to benefit from traditional occasion-led purchases, but PNG Jewellers is also seeing demand broaden beyond the conventional festive purchase. The brand expects this to influence the kind of products consumers consider during the season. “Consumers are increasingly looking beyond traditional festive purchases towards self-purchase, micro-gifting and lightweight daily-wear jewellery. We are also seeing heightened interest in gold and diamond jewellery as consumers look for a blend of emotional value, gifting and long-term worth,” Chavaan adds.
That broadening of the purchase occasion gives jewellery more reasons to remain visible during the festive period. It also means the category is not relying only on one large, traditional purchase moment to drive its seasonal business.
Automobiles present another distinct pattern. Unlike categories whose advertising intensity is heavily concentrated around festive sales, auto brands maintain communication through the year, with the festive period providing an additional opportunity to push purchases, launches and offers. “We expect our festive advertising investments to remain broadly in line with last year, given the importance of the festive period for two-wheelers and the strong purchase intent typically seen during this auspicious season. At the same time, we will remain agile, optimising our spends based on market demand, regional opportunities and consumer response,” Vijay Kaul, General Manager, Marketing, Yamaha.
The key objective for the brand, as Kaul mentions, is to drive brand preference and consideration, with conversion being the ultimate priority. The brand plans to adopt an omnichannel, performance-led approach, using media and content to move consumers from inspiration to action and drive qualified footfalls to Yamaha showrooms and retail conversions.
The same distinction appears in fashion. Another really essential category from a consumer point of view. BIBA is using the festive period not only to drive seasonal sales but also to introduce its Autumn/Winter 2026 collection and build its newer BIBA NXT proposition.
Ekta Dutta, Head of Marketing, BIBA, explains, “Festive is a critical window for us, but the role of the brand is evolving. This year, we’re balancing festive demand capture with longer-term brand building, especially for BIBA NXT. We are investing in cultural relevance and creator-led storytelling to bring the brand closer to younger audiences.”
We hence, see a category market where the festive opportunity is being used for different purposes. A sales window, a chance to introduce products, build trial or bring new consumer groups into the franchise.
E-commerce and quick commerce are also expected to remain significant contributors to festive advertising, given their direct connection with purchase. “Quick commerce advertising has gone from `1,325 crore to `4,000 crore, and to a projected `6,000 crore, in the space of two years. Advertising on the major e-commerce platforms reached `10,257 crore last year, growing 27 per cent,” notes Sharma. Their presence adds another layer to the category picture because platforms themselves are competing for festive demand while also becoming advertising destinations for other brands.
Where Is the Festive Rupee Going?
If the festive market is growing, the next question is where that additional money will land. The answer is not a simple move from television to digital. Digital is expected to take the largest share of incremental festive spending.
Dentsu India expects digital to account for around 50–55% of festive media investment, with television at 25–30%, print at 8–10% and OOH/DOOH at 6–8%. The agency expects digital video, social, creators, CTV and commerce media to be among the key beneficiaries of incremental spending.
Megha Nair, Executive Vice President, dentsu India, says, “Digital continues to be the largest beneficiary of incremental festive spends, particularly digital video, social, creators, CTV and commerce media. We are also seeing stronger interest in retail media and quick commerce because these platforms sit closer to the point of purchase and offer better attribution.”
The appeal of these formats lies in what happens after the advertisement is seen. Retail media and commerce platforms can take a consumer closer to a transaction, while CTV and digital video give advertisers the scale of video with more targeted delivery. Creators, meanwhile, have become part of the broader video ecosystem rather than a separate influencer activity.
That is also changing how agencies look at video itself. Vengalil expects the 60-70 percent of festive spending to move through video formats across TV, CTV, OTT, social and digital video. The key shift is that advertisers will plan video as one ecosystem rather than as separate TV versus digital buckets.
This puts CTV in an interesting position. It gives advertisers a large-screen environment while offering some of the targeting and measurement capabilities associated with digital. It also allows video budgets to be planned across platforms rather than treating television and online video as completely separate investments. But television itself is not being pushed to the margins. Premium entertainment properties continue to attract festive demand, particularly where advertisers want scale and high-impact visibility.
Sony Entertainment Television says 90–95% of the inventory around its impact IPs has already been sold, indicating strong demand for its festive programming. The broadcaster is also seeing advertisers look beyond conventional spot advertising towards integrations around its properties. Akshay Agrawal, Head - Linear Ad Sales, Sony Pictures Networks India, says, “Brands today want much more than just spot buys. They are looking for integrated solutions that can drive conversations, engagement, app downloads, and meaningful brand visibility through custom integrations around the show.”
Print and OOH remain part of that broader mix. Print continues to have relevance in markets and categories where detailed communication and regional reach matter, while OOH and DOOH benefit from the increase in consumer movement around shopping, travel and festive activity.
The trends and the Trendsetters
The festive opportunity is being shaped by a consumer who is willing to spend, but is not spending in the same way across categories or income groups. There is a degree of tension between aspiration and value: consumers are open to trading up for products they consider meaningful, while remaining conscious of what they are getting for the money.
India’s festive shopping journey is moving beyond the traditional Diwali-led spike, with Gen Z beginning to discover, plan and discuss purchases well ahead of the peak festive period. GWI and Snapchat research shows that 70% of Gen Z consumers view the festive season as a series of celebrations rather than one shopping moment, while nearly four in 10 begin planning their Diwali purchases more than a month in advance. At the same time, shopping remains a mix of intent and spontaneity, with 41% saying most of their purchases are planned and 40% saying they plan but also buy spontaneously. The research finds that 76% of Gen Z say instant feedback from people they trust makes them more confident about purchases, while 63% share products with friends or family before buying. For brands, this is pushing festive marketing towards earlier, more sustained and more personalised engagement rather than a single campaign burst. Neha Jolly Sawhney, Snapchat, says, “I don’t think brands are thinking about Diwali as a weekend thing anymore. They’re very cognizant of the fact that shopping is starting early, celebrations are starting early.” She adds that brands are increasingly looking to build relevance and intimacy across the pre-festive period rather than simply chasing trends.
Premiumisation and value-consciousness are also emerging together, rather than one replacing the other. Consumers are willing to spend more when they see clear value in better design, quality, comfort or aspiration, while remaining selective about where they put their money. Badri Beriwal, Chief Strategy & Business Development Officer, Bata India, says, “Comfort and premiumisation continue to grow side by side with genuine value-consciousness, so our messaging has to work for both a first-time buyer in a franchise town and a premium comfort shopper in a metro.”
At the same time, the festive basket itself is widening, with self-gifting, micro-gifting and lightweight, everyday products creating more occasions beyond traditional festive purchases. This is also making regional relevance more important. Beriwal points, “A meaningful part of that increase is going into regional festive marketing, which we’re genuinely bullish on. Festivals in India are deeply regional in character, Durga Pujo in the East, Onam in the South, Diwali nationally but celebrated differently market to market.” For Bata, that means market-specific collections, regional faces and locally relevant storytelling, alongside expansion into semi-urban and Tier 2 markets.
Opportunities and Fault Lines
The opportunity for festive AdEx is still substantial. Consumer confidence, concentrated purchase intent and a willingness to spend on premium and aspirational products are creating a favourable backdrop. Lower interest rates and GST-related benefits are also being seen as additional supports for discretionary consumption, while e-commerce, quick commerce, easier access to credit, new product launches and growing demand from Tier 2 and smaller cities are widening the pool of festive demand.
For advertisers, the opportunity is not limited to the traditional festive categories or metros. The expansion of digital commerce and payments is allowing brands to reach consumers beyond the larger urban markets, while the festive period gives brands a reason to launch products, build share of voice and capture consumers when purchase intent is high.
But the market is also entering the season with several points of pressure. Measurement uncertainty around television is the most immediate one. Joshi, says, “The ongoing BARC ratings disruption is particularly problematic because the festive season is when television traditionally commands substantial advertiser attention. The TV advertising market is estimated at around Rs 40,000 crore, and the lack of current weekly ratings means advertisers are being forced to rely more heavily on historical data when making media decisions.”
If the uncertainty continues into the major festive weeks, Joshi expects some advertisers to hold back television commitments or redistribute incremental budgets towards digital, CTV, retail media and other measurable environments. She sees this as a ‘television abandonment’, but rather ‘risk redistribution.’
The other pressure is the economics of the advertiser side. Rising input costs, competition, particularly from quick commerce, media inflation and pressure on margins can make brands more cautious about adding spend without a corresponding improvement in returns. Inventory is another practical constraint. During the festive period, brands may offer discounts and increase advertising simultaneously, but if advertising costs rise without conversion following, budgets can come under pressure. The same applies when advertised products go out of stock, potentially wasting both media investment and the momentum generated by the campaign.
There are broader uncertainties too. Vengalil identifies geopolitical conflict and domestic disruption as potential risks to the optimistic outlook as well. He also notes that an erratic monsoon could have implications for the festive period and its aftermath. Beyond these pressures, uneven urban consumption remains a watch-out, Beriwal points out, particularly for categories that depend heavily on seasonal demand.
A Festive Season, But a Different Market
Festive advertising has traditionally rewarded scale. The brands that could build the biggest presence around Diwali had a natural advantage. But the 2026 season is showing a market where scale alone may not be enough. A consumer can be in-market earlier, move between planned and spontaneous purchases, seek validation from peers, trade up in one category and look for value in another. For advertisers, that makes the festive season less of a single peak and more of a series of opportunities to win a purchase. The festive plan, in other words, is becoming something that can be adjusted while the season is still unfolding. And the calendar itself may not remain as predictable. The possibility of the IPL moving into a September-October window from 2027 could eventually put another major advertising property closer to the festive period, adding yet another consideration to how brands plan the second half of the year.
For now, 2026 offers a useful test. The festive market has all the ingredients for another strong season, but the real test is still to come. As the weeks of peak spending unfold, it remains to be seen whether the optimism around consumer demand will translate into the kind of advertising growth the industry is anticipating, and whether brands will ultimately spend more or simply spend differently.
